U.S. Soccer: Have We Finally Reached A Tipping Point?

For as long as I have been following sports, there has been one question that has always left me scratching my head: Why has soccer, which is so hugely popular around the world, still struggled to gain even a modest level of acceptance here in the United States? The question (and the debates that usually follow) tend to pop up most frequently when a significant championship such as the World Cup, the Olympics or the European Championships is being contested. And with the conclusion of the FIFA Women's World Cup, the discussions have taken center stage once again.

In the interest of full disclosure, I will admit to you all that there are at least a dozen things I would rather do than sit down and watch a soccer match. But I am not totally closed off to the idea. If the story is compelling enough, I will watch. This is why I've been tracking the U.S. Women's National Team for the last couple weeks, and why I was camped out in front of my television to watch every second of the Women's World Cup final match Sunday afternoon. And it got me to thinking about one question. Has anything really changed over the last 25 years? In other words, now that the Women's World Cup is over, will these discussions about soccer's growth and popularity in the U.S. fade away like they have in the past? Or are we finally at a point in time where things are changing? Now, I am a naturally curious person, so I decided to do some poking around to see what I could find out. What I discovered leads me to believe that this time, the idea of soccer's popularity taking a big quantum leap forward may not be so far-fetched. In fact, we are starting to see it happen already. Here are five reasons why:

Reason #5: Increased Exposure On ESPN

It's hard to imagine the self-proclaimed "World-Wide Leader in Sports" not being in the middle of all this. Last year, ESPN was part of a three network deal with Major League Soccer to broadcast their games on television and stream them on ESPN.com. They will pay MLS roughly $45 million a year for the next eight years for those rights. Fox and Univision were also part of the deal, which is worth a total of $720 million to MLS. Upon the signing of the contract with the three networks, MLS commissioner Don Garber stated, "It's a partnership that's going to elevate the domestic game to unprecedented heights, something that all of us have been working so hard to achieve." For that kind of money, I'd say the odds of that happening are pretty good. ESPN isn't an organization that makes these kinds of decisions in a vacuum. That $360 million represents a big commitment, so I am thinking that they are on to something. If you don't think so, maybe you'll change your mind after reading the next reason.

Reason #4: MLS Expansion & Increased Franchise Value

Major League Soccer debuted in 1996 with ten teams. Now in its 20th year, MLS boasts a total of twenty franchises. It plans to add four more by 2020. But what is even more significant is how the value of these teams has skyrocketed. According to Forbes Magazine, the average MLS franchise was worth about $37 million in 2008. In 2013, that number stood at just over $103 million with the Seattle Sounders topping the list at $175 million. Given this type of growth, both numbers figure to be even higher now that we are two years further down the road. More importantly, over half of the teams in the league are turning a nice profit; a stark contrast to 2008 when the average team was pretty much hemorrhaging money. All of these indicators point to the fact that MLS is putting a quality product on the field and that fans are beginning to respond. Right now it's the fastest growing fan base in the country, so it's only a matter of time before those numbers reach critical mass.

Reason #3: The Numbers Don't Lie

Participation in youth soccer programs continues to grow at a steady rate. In 2014, U.S. Youth Soccer (the country's largest youth sports organization) reported over three million kids registered in programs around the country, which was up from about 2.8 million. This represents a bump of over 4% compared to 2013. On top of that, the U.S. Men's national team that competed in the 2014 World Cup had 16 members who were products of U.S. Youth Soccer. That certainly doesn't hurt if you are trying to strengthen the program beginning at the grass roots level. Here is another big reason that will figure into the equation as we move forward.

Reason #2: The U.S. Women's National Team 

Congratulations to the 2015 FIFAWomen's World Cup champions!! Many of us remember Mia Hamm, Julie Foudy, Brandi Chastain and company winning the World Cup in 1999 when it was played in the United States. But not many outside the soccer world know that they also won the inaugural Women's World Cup in 1991. In fact, the U.S. Women's team has never finished lower than third since WWC play began. That's pretty impressive any way you look at it. The 2015 edition of the national team features Carli Lloyd, Abby Wambach, and Hope Solo (who by the way, gets my vote for the coolest name in women's sports since U.S. alpine skier Picabo Street).

Carli Lloyd

This team is incredibly talented. All of it was on display in the final match against Japan as they scored an incredible four goals in the first 16 minutes of the game. Three of those goals belonged to Lloyd. Among them was an absolutely ridiculous shot she nailed from 54 yards away over the head of the opposing goalie who had drifted off of her line. Based on their performance it's pretty clear that the U.S. Women will remain a team to be reckoned with in the future. Now, the most significant reason why soccer's popularity is poised to explode in the United States.

Abby Wambach

Reason #1: The Millenials

About sixty years ago, the companies that had the forward vision to make the Baby Boomer generation the focal point of their marketing strategy ended up reaping huge rewards. The Baby Boomers grew to be the largest generation in the United States. As they matured, their purchasing power represented the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for every company under the sun. Well, guess what? In 2015, according to the Pew Research Center, the Millennial generation will overtake the Baby

Hope Solo

Boomers as the largest living generation in the country. Major League Soccer has seen this trend, which has also been fueled by the growth in the Hispanic population within that same demographic. Dan Courtemanche, Vice- President of Communications for MLS made it a point of saying that they are focused on Millennials as well as their kids. MLS has successfully tapped into social media also, which is the key to reaching this generation. Based on some research conducted by Stone Temple Consulting, a Massachusetts based firm, MLS has a stronger following on Google Plus than the NFL, Major League Baseball, and the NHL. Only the NBA has more followers by a slim margin of 2.65 million to 2.58 million. The MLS YouTube channel has over 150,000 subscribers. and they have nearly 300,000 followers on Twitter as well. This is all beginning to have an effect. Some data show that MLS has always been greater than hockey in popularity among kids 12-17, and it is now tied with Major League Baseball.





The bottom line is that by leveraging today's technology, soccer is in a position to reach heights that were thought to be unattainable as little as fifteen years ago.

So what does this all mean when we look at the bigger picture? I believe that soccer will surpass baseball shortly in popularity within that 12-17 year-old demographic shown above. It also stands a pretty decent chance of overtaking college basketball if current marketing strategies continue to be successful. Beyond that, it's tougher for me to predict. One thing is virtually certain. Football will remain king in this country. A person would have to be completely delusional to think that's going to change any time soon. As a sports fan, I don't know that all of these great strides that soccer has taken will necessarily change my habits when it comes to watching it. I have a ton of respect for the athletes; both men and women. They are among the best conditioned in the world and when I watch the U.S. National teams play, I get just as excited as any avid soccer fan. I will be right there with them when they are in the hunt for either a World Cup or Olympic Championship. I'm just not wired to sit an watch it for extended periods of time. That four goal outburst in the WWC final was great, but it is extremely rare. And while I don't need that kind of offense to keep me dialed into the game, I would like to at least see an average of five or six goals per game between the two teams. The good news is that organizations like MLS and FIFA no longer need to appeal to casual fans like me. They have an entire generation of Millennials and their kids on which to focus their attention. Put that together with the momentum generated by the U.S. Women's team winning the World Cup and a shifting demographic punctuated by the growth of the Hispanic population, and we could very well see soccer challenge baseball and basketball in terms of popularity within the next ten years among all fans, not just the avid ones. If you would have told me that fifteen years ago, I'd have said you were crazy. But now? It doesn't sound so crazy after all does it?


Until next time . . .

Karl